Trading volume expanded during the breakout, while the bull-bear power indicator rose to 1.23, indicating stronger short-term buying pressure.
The Supertrend indicator also flipped below the market and now provides dynamic support around $75.02. Holding above this level would keep the four-hour structure bullish and could turn the former channel resistance into support.
Crypto analyst Dami-Defi identified the same structural change on Aug. 10, noting that SOL had broken its five-week downtrend.
However, the breakout does not yet confirm a broader trend reversal. SOL remains below its May swing high near $97 and its January peak above $145.
What Is Driving the SOL Recovery?
The rally coincided with growing support for proposals designed to reduce Solana's future supply growth.
SIMD-0550 proposes increasing Solana's annual disinflation rate from 15% to 30%, allowing the network to reach its terminal inflation rate faster. According to the proposal, the change could bring the terminal 1.5% inflation rate forward from roughly 5.7 years to about 2.8 years and reduce emissions by approximately 18.9 million SOL over six years.
Solana's SIMD-0550 proposal
The proposal remains subject to governance and implementation, meaning its projected impact on SOL supply is not guaranteed.
A second proposal, SIMD-0553, focuses on resource-based transaction fees and could increase the amount of SOL burned through network activity.
Together, the proposals could alter Solana's long-term supply dynamics by reducing new emissions while increasing the amount of SOL removed through transaction fees.
Institutional Adoption Adds to the Bullish Narrative
Institutional activity has also strengthened Solana's positioning as blockchain infrastructure for regulated financial products.
BlackRock recently introduced a stablecoin reserve vehicle capable of recording fund ownership across multiple public blockchains, including Solana. The product itself holds cash, short-term U.S. Treasuries and repurchase agreements rather than SOL.
Western Union has taken a more direct step toward using Solana for payments.
In May, Western Union launched USDPT, a U.S. dollar-denominated payment stablecoin built on Solana and issued by Anchorage Digital Bank N.A., a federally regulated crypto bank.
Western Union launches USDPT on Solana
These developments do not necessarily require institutions to purchase large amounts of SOL. They do, however, strengthen Solana's position as infrastructure for regulated digital payments, stablecoins and tokenized financial products.
SOL Targets $78 Liquidity Before $80
The immediate technical target for SOL remains around $78, where leveraged positions create an important liquidity concentration.
A sustained break above $78 could trigger additional short liquidations and open the way toward $80.
Beyond $80, previous July price levels and the upper section of the former descending channel place the next major resistance zone around $82–$84.
That makes $83 a potential near-term target if SOL successfully retests the broken trendline and maintains momentum.
The key levels are therefore:
$75: breakout support
$78: immediate resistance/liquidity zone
$80: psychological resistance
$82–$84: next major resistance zone
$83: potential breakout target
Michaël van de Poppe Sees $100–$120 Potential
The bullish outlook extends beyond the immediate $83 target.
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe said on Aug. 10 that SOL had formed a higher low against Bitcoin and viewed the recent recovery as a positive signal following the prolonged correction.
Van de Poppe projected that SOL could eventually recover toward the $100–$120 range if the broader trend continues to improve.
That outlook would require SOL to clear several resistance levels first, including $80, the $82–$84 area and the previous swing high near $97.
Therefore, the $100–$120 projection remains a longer-term scenario rather than an immediate price target.
Daily Solana Chart Still Needs Confirmation
SOL's daily chart is improving, but it has not yet produced a fully confirmed bullish reversal.
The price has moved above the Ichimoku conversion line around $74.89 and the baseline around $74.73.
SOL is also attempting to clear the upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud around $76.93, making the current area an important daily closing level.
A sustained close above the cloud would strengthen the case for a move toward $80–$84.
Conversely, rejection near $77 could send SOL back toward the Ichimoku cluster between $74.73 and $74.89.
The Awesome Oscillator remains slightly negative at -0.46. Its red bars have contracted and the indicator is moving toward zero, suggesting bearish momentum is fading but has not completely reversed.
Liquidation Levels Highlight $75 and $73
Liquidation data also points to important downside levels.
Large long-liquidation concentrations are positioned around $75.70, $75.10 and $72.80.
If SOL loses the $75 support area, forced selling could push the price back toward $73 before buyers attempt another recovery.
This makes $75 an important level for bulls to defend.
As long as SOL remains above this area, the recent breakout structure remains intact.
Alpenglow Could Become Another SOL Catalyst
Solana's technical roadmap provides another potential catalyst.
The upcoming Alpenglow consensus upgrade is designed to significantly improve transaction finality. Solana's documentation currently targets approximately 150-millisecond finality, compared with roughly 12.8 seconds for the existing TowerBFT finality process.
Solana's official Alpenglow upgrade overview
The upgrade is under development, with the first phase expected to target mainnet activation in Q3 2026.
Solana's Agave 4.2 release also includes the necessary code for Alpenglow testing, while the network prepares for further testing and activation stages.
Solana Agave 4.2 release overview
Faster finality could strengthen Solana's appeal for applications requiring rapid settlement, particularly payments and high-frequency onchain activity.
US Financial Infrastructure Remains Important
Solana's institutional adoption is increasingly connected to regulated financial infrastructure in the United States.
Western Union's USDPT provides one example of a major payments company using Solana for a regulated dollar-based payment asset.
Meanwhile, Solana's development roadmap continues to focus on improving network performance and finality.
These developments do not guarantee higher SOL demand, but increased network usage could strengthen the long-term relationship between Solana's infrastructure growth and the value of its native token.
What Happens If SOL Breaks $78?
A decisive move above $78 would provide the first stronger confirmation that the five-week downtrend has been broken.
The next target would likely be $80, followed by the $82–$84 resistance zone.
A successful break through $84 could bring the previous $97 swing high back into focus.
Beyond that level, Van de Poppe's longer-term $100–$120 outlook would become increasingly relevant.
However, traders should distinguish between a short-term breakout and a complete trend reversal.
SOL still needs to establish higher highs and higher lows on larger timeframes before the broader bearish structure can be considered fully reversed.
What Happens If SOL Falls Below $75?
The bullish setup would weaken significantly if SOL falls back below $75.
A loss of the breakout zone could turn the recent move into a false breakout and send SOL toward the $73 area.
The next major downside reference would then be around $72.80, close to the Aug. 7 low.
Therefore, the $75 area remains the key invalidation zone for the current four-hour bullish structure.
Final Thoughts
Solana's latest price move has given bulls a reason to be optimistic after five weeks of downward pressure.
SOL climbed from $72.49 to $77.36, breaking above its descending channel and reclaiming the $75 region.
The immediate battle is now around $78.
A clean breakout could open the path toward $80 and $82–$84, while a sustained move through those levels could bring the $97 area back into focus.
At the same time, Solana's longer-term narrative is being supported by proposed changes to token emissions, growing stablecoin and payment adoption, and the upcoming Alpenglow upgrade.
Still, none of these developments guarantees a sustained SOL rally.
For now, $75 remains the key support, $78 the immediate breakout level and $83 the next major upside target. If bulls maintain control, the broader $100–$120 scenario highlighted by Michaël van de Poppe could eventually come into play.
